5. Nickel Boys
Whether you think that filming “Birdman” and “1917” in one single continuous shot was a stroke of genius worthy of the highest praise or a show-offy gimmick that gets old quick, you’re probably justified either way. And it’s okay to feel a little bit maxed out for the time being on big buzzy prestige-pics that cruise through the season and emerge as strong contenders purely based on the novelty of their filmmaking techniques.
At first glance, you’d be forgiven for writing off this Colson Whitehead’s Pulitzer prize-winning novel adaptation —a 1960s period piece about two young Black teens developing a close friendship in an abusive reform school in the Jim Crow South — as standard-issue Oscar fodder. But let it be known: RaMell Boss’ gamble to shoot entirely from the first-person perspective isn’t some cynical marketing ploy to lure Oscar voters and distract you from a paper-thin narrative Iñarritú-style. Far from being a cop-out, allowing the viewer to experience the story straight through Elwood (Ethan Herisse) and Turner’s (Brandon Wilson) eyes only deepens the emotional weight and raw impact of their gut-wrenching journey.
After being on the fringes of the Best Picture race for most of the awards season, “Nickel Boys” held on to its spot and even nabbed a Best Adapted Screenplay as the cherry on top. Be warned: It will also destroy you into a sobbing mess.
4. Conclave
At this stage, it’d be foolish to bet against “The Brutalist”. But if anyone’s going to unseat the presumed Best Picture frontrunner, it might as well be Edward Berger’s easy-to-digest crowdpleaser, which ticks a lot of Oscar boxes and could be within reach to slip through the gaps and claim the prize at the 11th hour.
If the Oscar voters’ idea of entertainment involves more than sitting through a ponderous 215-minute construction time-lapse of a drab Philadelphia community center, don’t count this political thriller based on Robert Harris’ novel completely out of the race. Toplined by an Oscar-worthy Ralph Fiennes performance, this 12-time BAFTA nominee busts open the inner secrets of the Catholic Church, observing the ruthless power struggle between Vatican cardinals like a fly on the wall as they plot and backstab one another while racing against the clock to select a new pope.
The last gasp of the adult-driven, mid-budget studio programming that used to be the Oscar’s bread and butter, “Conclave” has all the hallmarks of a dark-horse candidate that could end up winning over the Academy membership: a pulpy story that goes down easy and isn’t nearly four hours long, an international ensemble cast full of veteran actors under the thumb of a well-respected craftsman/past winner, and a timely political subtext with obvious real-world parallels. Somehow, it’s even become one of the most memed movies of the year. Will the “Conclave” online fever translate into the preferential ballot? Not likely, but don’t rule it out just yet.
3. Dune: Part Two
Historically speaking, sequels to mainstream mega-blockbusters with early spring releases rarely make a serious bid for Oscar contention let alone keep up enough momentum over the year to last through the awards season gauntlet with more than an outside shot to win the big prize. And we’re not exactly holding our breath waiting for “Dune: Part Two” to make a late surge and prove us all wrong, but it’s still a bit jarring to see Denis Villeneuve’s name notably absent from the director’s shortlist. To add insult to injury, he also came up short at the Globes only to be inexcusably nudged out by a pair of mid-level journeymen in James Mangold and Jacques Audiard (boo-hoo for them).
The French-Canadian director ended up on the outside looking in for the third time running despite helming the defining theatergoing movie-event of 2024 (accounting for nearly half of the $1.6 billion combined box office earnings of this year’s crop of nominees), so he’ll just have to settle for mountains of money and hope that he ends up getting the Peter Jackson treatment and finally breaks the duck with the third instalment of the series. For now, however, being able to say you stuck the landing and successfully brought Frank Herbert’s epic sci-fi novel to life is a neat consolation prize, at least until the Academy gets their act together.
2. The Substance
How close is the best actress race? Just about everyone seems to agree that it has come down to Mikey Madison or Demi Moore. It’s a squeaker that could go either way, but barring a late surge from the “Anora” breakout star, all signs point toward the latter narrowly grabbing the pole position after a knockout speech at the Globes gave her a late boost back in January, which just might be enough to speed-past the finish line and overcome the Oscar’s bias against genre films.
In years past, it would’ve been almost inconceivable for the Academy’s old guard to come around and rally behind such a risk-taking, challenging performance from an R-rated body-horror movie. But Moore fully deserves her flowers for pulling off a stunning career renaissance and doing the heavy lifting here as Elisabeth Sparkle, a has-been Hollywood star who takes an experimental drug to become a younger, better version of herself. It’s too bad the supporting actress field was too tight to make room for Margaret Qualley, but at least it’s been a refreshing change of pace to see Carolie Fargeat get some love from the male-centric directors’ branch and pick up a nom after being on the bubble heading into the January 23 announcements.
In a parallel universe, it’d be nice to see “The Substance” pull off the upset come March. But considering it’s been some 30-odd years since a horror flick (“The Silence of the Lambs”) went the distance and swept the board at the Oscars, it still looks like a long shot.
1. Anora
It scored big at the DGA Awards, but let’s be honest: It’s still tough to imagine the traditionally stodgy Academy throwing its weight behind a $6 million R-rated film about a lowly New York City stripper, let alone seriously consider giving it the Oscar for best picture. It may be a little too radical and hip for their tastes, but if the award is truly meant to honor a cinematic achievement that takes risks, pushes boundaries, and amplify voices we rarely get to see on screen, then Sean Baker’s Palme d’Or-winning screwball romance deserves to go all the way.
Half Cinderella story, half shaggy dog comedy of errors (not to mention a much richer and nuanced exploration of class privilege, the immigrant experience, and the pitfalls of chasing the American dream than a certain other contender in this list), “Anora” finds unexpected humanity in messy, flawed, and dysfunctional screw-ups and somehow leaves you wanting to spend more time with them (big shout out to Yura Borisov for stealing the show and picking up a supporting nom for playing the most lovable laconic Euro goon since Peter Stormare in “Fargo”).
This is a raw, funny, and extremely heartfelt film that took Cannes by storm, instantly connected with general audiences, and most importantly, one that we’ll keep returning to again for years to come, which honestly can’t be said for most of this year’s crop of nominees. If that alone is not deserving of the Best Picture statue, then Mikey Madison’s hot-wire performance should surely tip the scales in its favor.